How we measure
Methodology is not an appendix at the back of a report; it is what makes a number a number. This page explains how every value we publish is built — and what we refuse to publish.
margin ±
fieldwork date
This stamp sits on every chart we publish. If you see a number bearing our name without it, it is not ours.
A number's journey from question to publication
- A methodology sheet before fieldworkEvery indicator has a fixed definition, unit, population and sampling design, approved and published before fieldwork begins. Question wording never changes after the first wave, so the series never breaks.
- Stratified, multi-stage cluster samplingThe fourteen governorates as strata, districts as clusters, households at random, and the respondent within the household by Kish grid. Weighting by population, sex and age group.
- Mixed-mode fieldworkFace-to-face interviews where digital coverage is weak, telephone in the cities. Every interview is logged with its time and approximate location, and a sample of respondents is re-contacted for verification.
- A published margin of error for every figureNo percentage is released without its sample size and margin of error at 95% confidence. For subgroups under two hundred respondents we report direction only, never percentages.
- Independent review before releaseAn external scientific committee audits the instrument, the sample and the weighting, and its report is published with the wave. Any challenge to a result triggers a public review.
- Full publicationThe questionnaire, governorate-level aggregated data and the weighting table are published with every wave under an open license with attribution.
What we commit to publicly
| Standards | AAPOR Transparency Initiative, the ESOMAR code, the WAPOR charter, and ISO 20252 for market and opinion research. |
|---|---|
| National sample | About 2,000 respondents per wave (±2.2% at 95% confidence), raised to 3,600 when subgroup precision is needed. |
| Frequency | The Barometer is quarterly; the economic index is monthly. |
| Comparative references | We compare only with those who publish their full methodology: the Arab Opinion Index (3,690 respondents over 25 days, summer 2025), the Syrian Center for Policy Research, Gallup and Pew. |
| What we refuse to publish | Any number without a sample, margin and fieldwork date; any comparison between differently worded questions; any data identifying an individual. |
| Privacy | No names or phone numbers are kept after verification ends. Data is published in aggregate only. |
| Independence | Funding sources are disclosed annually, and no single funder exceeds half the budget. |
Three lessons we learned from others before starting
Monitoring is not surveillance
In 2019 a large regional center published a report naming journalists, drawing criminal complaints and lasting reputational damage. We monitor phenomena — never people.
Transparency is necessary, not sufficient
A venerable institute has disclosed its donors since 1983 and has still suffered two crises. So we added a diverse board of trustees and an independent review committee.
One donor is enough to sink you
The early-2025 US aid freeze halted, according to published reports, most programs of organizations that depended on a single donor — within weeks. No source exceeds half our budget.